Responding to the BBC debate at Wembley, Vote Leave Chief Executive Matthew Elliott said:

‘The IN campaign had nothing positive to contribute tonight – just like they’ve failed to make a positive contribution during the whole campaign. They’ve lost the economic argument, they don’t want to spend the £350 million we send to Brussels every week on our priorities and can’t explain how we can ever control immigration from inside the EU. The couldn’t even be honest about how many laws in this country come from Brussels. The public will have a choice on Thursday, they can choose project fear and vote IN or they can chose project hope and take back control of their money and their borders. A Vote to Leave on Thursday is a vote for democracy.’

The Government gave up its veto over the next Treaty as part of the renegotiation.

Before the deal, Government Ministers made clear their consent to the next EU Treaty was the price for other member states agreeing to their renegotiation.

George Osborne said: ‘So let me be candid: there is a deal to be done and we can work together. Rather than stand in your way, or veto the Treaty amendments required, we, in Britain, can support you in the Eurozone make the lasting changes that you need to see strengthen the euro. In return, you can help us make the changes we need to safeguard the interests of those economies who are not in the Eurozone’.

David Cameron has said ‘we will not stand in the way of those developments, as long as we can be sure that there are mechanisms in place to ensure that our own interests are fully protected’. He believes this happened during his renegotiation.

David Cameron’s renegotiation agreement (which he claims is ‘legally binding and irreversible’) states that: ‘Member States not participating in the further deepening of the economic and monetary union will not create obstacles to but facilitate such further deepening’. It also obliges the UK to ‘refrain from measures which could jeopardise the attainment of the objectives of economic and monetary union.’. This means the UK is committing to support the planned new EU Treaty.

House of Commons Library research shows 61% of legislation comes from the EU.

Research by the House of Commons Library shows that in 2013, 61.2% of legislation was made by Brussels.

The CBI has admitted ‘over 50% of all government legislation originat[es] in Brussels’.

The CBI has said: ‘It is calculated that 70% of all new legislation relevant to business is now European rather than national in origin’.

Nick Clegg has admitted: ‘half of all new legislation now enacted in the UK begins in Brussels’.

Chuka Ummuna has said: ‘EU legislation… accounts for around half of all new regulation’.

The new EU Treaty will transfer major powers to the EU institutions from the British Parliament and courts.

An EU intelligence agency: In November, Dimitris Avramopoulos, the European Commissioner for Migration called for ‘the creation of a European Ιntelligence Agency’.

An EU army: In March last year, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker announced that he wanted to see the introduction of a European Army ‘to show that we are serious’.

Taking control of our NHS: Last February, European Commissioner for Health, Vytenis Andriukaitis, called to ‘change the European Union treaties in the future’ to allow the EU to take control of public health, including over alcohol. He has said ‘I can’t imagine a more economically effective possibility than to manage health issues at EU level’.

Scrapping the UK’s zero rates of VAT: The Economics Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici, has called for further harmonisation of taxation, including scrapping the UK’s zero rates, stating a ‘zero rate is not the best idea’.

Introducing a new ‘pillar of social rights’: The European Commission has called for the ‘development of a European pillar of social rights’, stating ‘the Commission will pursue two complementary work strands: firstly, modernising and addressing the gaps in existing social policy legislation to take account of today’s work environment and to ensure that new models of work maintain a fair balance in the relationship between employers and workers’. The Commission suggests areas such as wages, union rights, pensions and access to social services could form part of the ‘pillar’. This could mean the UK’s more generous social protections are weakened by EU harmonisation.

The EU has stopped us removing dangerous individuals from the UK.

Terrorists. In 2015, the Special Immigration Appeals Commission ruled the UK could not exclude the French national ZZ from the UK because of EU law, despite the fact that he was a suspected terrorist. The Commission concluded that: ‘We are confident that the Appellant was actively involved in the GIA [Algerian Armed Islamic Group], and was so involved well into 1996. He had broad contacts with GIA extremists in Europe. His accounts as to his trips to Europe are untrue. We conclude that his trips to the Continent were as a GIA activist’.

Murderers. In 1995, Learco Chindamo, who is an Italian citizen, murdered the headteacher Philip Lawrence who went to help a 13-year-old boy who was being attacked. He was sentenced to life imprisonment in 1996. In 2007, Mr Justice Collins, sitting in the Asylum and Immigration Tribunal, ruled that removing Chindamo would be ‘disproportionate’ under EU law. David Cameron said that Tribunal’s decision ‘flies in the face of common sense. It is a shining example of what is going wrong in our country. He is someone who has been found guilty of murder and should be deported back to his country… What about the rights of Mrs Lawrence or the victim?’. Cameron said: ‘This does seem to be complete madness’.

Rapists. Mircea Gheorghiu, a Romanian national, entered the UK without leave in January 2007. In November 2007, he was convicted of driving a motor vehicle with excess alcohol, fined and disqualified from driving for 20 months. It later emerged that he had ‘a criminal record in Romania. In 1990 he was convicted of the offence of rape and sentenced to 6 years imprisonment. Between 2001 and March 2002 he was convicted on three occasions of forestry offences, cutting timber without a licence, and received custodial sentences on the last two occasions.’ The Secretary of State removed him from the UK in March 2015. Nonetheless, on 18 November 2015, Mr Justice Blake, sitting in the Upper Tribunal, decided this was unlawful under EU law, ruling Gheorghiu must be ‘reunited with his family as quickly as possible’ and that he was ‘entitled to a permanent residence on his return and the residence card issued to him will reflect that’.

Turkey and four other countries are joining the EU. This is being accelerated with unanimous support. Talks could begin the day after the referendum.

The accession process is being accelerated. In a press release issued on 15 June, the European Commission has announced that ‘The Commission tabled the Draft Common Position on Chapter 33 (financial and budgetary provisions) in the Council on 29 April, enabling the Council to decide on the opening of this Chapter by end of June. In addition, preparatory work continues at an accelerated pace to make progress on five Chapters’.

There is unanimous support in the EU for the quickening pace of Turkish accession. On 18 March 2016, the European Council unanimously agreed that the EU should ‘re-energise the accession process’ and that Turkish acceleration should be ‘accelerated’.

David Cameron strongly supports this. In 2010, Cameron said he was ‘angry’ at the slow pace of Turkish accession, that he was the ‘strongest possible advocate for EU membership’ for Turkey, and that ‘I want us to pave the road from Ankara to Brussels’. In 2014, he said that: ‘In terms of Turkish membership of the EU, I very much support that. That’s a longstanding position of British foreign policy which I support’.

The Government admitted it supported Turkish accession last month. Last month, the Europe Minister, David Lidington, said: ‘The UK supports Turkey’s EU accession process’.

The British public will not get a vote on the accession of Turkey to the EU. The European Union Act 2011 allows the Government to ratify EU accession treaties without a referendum). There was no referendum on the accession of Croatia to the EU in 2013 (European Union.

The Government opposes giving the British people a say. As the Minister for Europe, David Lidington, said in 2011: ‘A few years ago, 10 new member states joined the European Union at the same time. I believe that their combined population then was 73 million, which is slightly greater than Turkey’s population is now. I do not believe that anybody in this country argued at that time that a British referendum on those accessions was right’.

The UK is paying £2 billion to help Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia to join the EU. Turkey alone is set to receive over £1 billion of UK funds to help prepare it for membership.

The UK has gone further than EU law on workers’ rights. Further harmonisation of social legislation poses a threat to the UK’s more generous protections.

The minimum wage, which was introduced in 1998, had nothing to do with the EU.

The Wilson Government passed the Equal Pay Act 1970 before it entered the then European Economic Community in 1973. The Labour Government passed the Sex Discrimination Act 1975, before the first EU Directive on the topic was adopted. There is no need to be in the EU to ensure equal pay for equal work.

The Employment Protection Act 1975 provided that a woman who was dismissed on the grounds of pregnancy was to be treated as unfairly dismissed. This was adopted long before the Pregnant Workers Directive.

The UK has been more generous than EU law on paid holidays, with 5.6 weeks entitlement each year, rather than the four contained in EU law.

The UK is more generous on maternity pay. Statutory maternity pay lasts for 39 weeks under UK law. This is much more generous than EU law, which provides for a period of 14 weeks.

UK legislation also gives women the right to receive 90% of their salary during the first six weeks of leave. EU law only requires that the rate of pay be equivalent to statutory sick pay in this period. This is £88.45 per week.

The UK is more generous on maternity leave. UK maternity leave may be taken for up to 52 weeks. EU law only requires a period of four months.

The right of part-time workers not to be discriminated against is contained in UK legislation. The enabling legislation was the Employment Relations Act 1999. This means that protections for part-time workers would remain in UK law if we left the EU.

The UK had legislation against discrimination on grounds of race long before the EU did.

The UK passed the legislation against race discrimination, the Race Relations Act 1965 and the Race Relations Act 1968, before we joined the EU.

High Court Judge Sir Rabinder Singh has said: ‘The Race Relations Act 1976 [which consolidated the 1960s legislation] was perhaps one of the strongest pieces of legislation of its kind in the world and certainly in Europe. It long predated legislation against racial discrimination in EU law’.

This week the IN campaign admitted that there can be no upper limit to migration if we stay in the EU.

New research released shows the devastating impact of uncontrolled migration on our schools.

Commenting, Priti Patel MP said:

‘The EU is undemocratic and interferes too much in our daily lives. We have seen that with the scale of migration, and the impact this has had on local communities – and key public services such as the NHS, housing and schools.  With more countries waiting to join the EU, including Albania, Serbia, and Turkey – and with British taxpayers paying almost £2 billion to help them join – this problem can only get worse.

‘This research proves that class sizes are already overstretched, with an 8% increase over the last year in the number of pupils in classes over 30. These demands will only increase if the UK remains in the EU with no control over its borders.

‘Thursday offers a once in a lifetime opportunity to say that the situation is unsustainable – and to recognise that it is hurting British families. On Thursday, we have the chance to take back control and Vote Leave.’

Research shows if Britain remains in the EU, these problems will get worse:

• 100,800 infants are now educated in classes over the legal limit of 30 pupils per class – an increase of 8% on the previous year.

• Currently one in five primary school children has a first language other than English – in state funded primary schools it is 19.4%, in primary academies it is 19.3%.

• 11.6% of children currently fail to get into their first choice primary school.

• If the EU remains at its current size, we can expect an additional 261,000 school age European citizens to be in the UK school system by 2030. This could increase to 571,000 if the ‘A5’ accession countries (Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey) join in the near future, as currently planned.

• The increase in school age European citizens is likely to cost between £12.3 billion and £21.7 billion.

• Added to this, there are also capital costs needed to accommodate these extra children, estimated to range between £3.4 billion and £7.3 billion.

• Added together, the total additional cost to the UK schools budget of this increase in the school age population due to EU migration can therefore be expected to range between £15.6 billion (assuming the A5 countries don’t join) and £28.9 billion (assuming they do join). The additional annual cost by 2030 will be between £1 billion to £1.9 billion per year.

The scale of the problem

Britain’s schools are under pressure from uncontrolled EU immigration. David Cameron has admitted, ‘in some areas, the number of migrants we’re seeing is far higher than our local authorities, our schools and our hospitals can cope with. They’re much higher than anything the EU has known before in its history’. This has caused a number of problems for many schools: something that the Prime Minister has also admitted: ‘There are primary schools where dozens of languages are spoken, with only a small minority speaking English as their first language’.

These claims are supported by official statistics from the Government:

100,800 infants are now educated in classes over the legal limit of 30 pupils per class – an increase of 8% on the previous year.

Currently one in five primary school children has a first language other than English – in state funded primary schools it is 19.4%, in primary academies it is 19.3%.

11.6% of children currently fail to get into their first choice primary school.

16% don’t get into their first choice secondary school.

New research shows that the pressures identified by the Prime Minister are set to get far more severe over the next fifteen years.

School-age migration from the EU since the A8 accession

The Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority has recently confirmed the high numbers of children migrating to the UK from other EU member states. From 2000-2014, 152,000 EU migrants of school age came to the UK.

Source: UK Statistics Authority, 3 May 2016.

These numbers are on a steep upward trajectory. From 2000-2004, the average number of school-age EEA migrants per year was 5,800. This rose to 8,200 in 2005-2009. It then nearly doubled to 16,200 in the period 2010-2014. This trend has been especially clear since the accession of the eastern European member states in 2004. It also increased at an unprecedented rate in the last year of recorded data.

Source: UK Statistics Authority, 3 May 2016.

Over the same period, around 1 million net migrants came to the UK from the EU, 515,000 of whom were from the EU8 accession states.

Source: ONS, 2015; ONS, May 2016; UKSA, 3 May 2016.

The school-age migrants as a percentage of the total was therefore as follows:

• All EU states: 13.6%.

• EU8 accession states: 10.1%.

The number of children in the UK of school age with one or more parent of EU/EEA nationality more than doubled between 2007 and 2015:

Source: UK Statistics Authority, 29 April 2016.

Future school-age migration

A conservative estimate of future school-age migration from the EU is that one in ten migrants will be of school age. This allows for a forecast of future school-age migration from the EU to be calculated. Vote Leave has already set out forecasts for future inward migration. It is possible to adapt these models to calculate future school-age migration from the EU. This provides:

1. A baseline forecast, in which the candidate countries do not accede to the EU.

2. A low forecast, under which the accession countries join in 2020 and migrate to the UK at the same rate as the EU-8 countries did.

3. A medium forecast is that net EU migration mirrors migration from the EU-2 countries.

4. A high forecast – which builds on the medium forecast, and takes into account the pull factor of the national living wage.

We also include a scenario in which transitional controls are imposed for a period of seven years from 2020 until the end of 2027, the duration of transitional controls following the A2 accessions in 2007. This forecast assumes the same migration as in the case of the baseline until 2028, and the increases in net migration that occur under the low forecast thereafter).

Children born to EU parents in the UK

In 2014, 76,650 children were born in the UK to a parent or parents from the EU.

Source: ONS, August 2015.

These numbers are rising, as the long-term trend for those born in England and Wales to mothers from the EU shows.

Source: ONS, August 2015.

Children born to future EU migrants

The current birth rate in England and Wales is 12.1 births per thousand of the population. Assuming this will be the birth rate for future EU migrants, the table below indicates the number of children expected to be born to net EU migrants coming to the UK between now and 2030. It should be stressed that the totals at the bottom of the table do not include children born to EU migrants who arrived before this year.

Assuming that the children born to EU migrants will enter the school system five years after their birth, it is possible to combine the figures for the number of school age migrants from the EU and the number of births to EU migrants. Adding these two figures together reveals the total number of new persons of school age due to EU migration for the next fifteen years.

School funding

Schools in England have three main streams of current revenue: the Dedicated Schools Grant (Schools and High Needs Blocks), the Pupil Premium and the Education Services Grant (ESG). If these are added together and then divided by the number of schools pupils, it is possible to calculate education spending per pupil.

Source: Education Funding Agency, 2016; Education Funding Agency, 2015; Education Funding Agency, 27 April 2016

As the 2016 cohort passes through the school system, each pupil will cost on average £5,803.89 per year. By assuming that per pupil funding remains at today’s levels, it is possible to calculate the cost of future school-age migration from the EU to the UK as set out above. In each cohort, we must allow for a certain proportion who will not enter state education: a generous assumption is that this is 7% (the same as the general proportion of children who attend independent schools in England).

The total cost to the schools budget of EU migration from 2016 to 2030 is therefore expected to range between £15.6 billion and £28.9 billion. This is an annual cost of between £1 billion to £1.9 billion per year. It is worth noting finally that these are conservative estimates since they do not include: the cost of purchasing land for new schools; early-years education; pre-2016 EU migration, or migration of those under five years of age. The actual cost of a remain vote to our schools budget is likely to be far higher.

‘Turkey is becoming less democratic and open, it is closing down a free press and censoring free speech. Turkish border guards have used violence against Syrian asylum seekers resulting, according the Human Rights Watch, in deaths, including that of a child. Its treatment of refugees and its turning a blind eye to human trafficking have also been much criticised.

‘Yet despite the obvious departure from the conditions and behaviours we demand for membership of the EU, we’ve agreed to speed up the process. Merkel’s overruling her own Foreign Minister to enable satirist Jan Böhmermann to face trial for a poem he had written criticising Erdoğan shows how fragile the principles of freedom and democracy have become in order to secure Turkey’s co-operation to mitigate the impact of the migrant crisis on Europe. Security and good government are not the only casualties of the EU’s policy towards Turkey.

‘The EU is paying lip service to democracy, in the same way it paid lip service to fiscal strength when creating the eurozone. Then Goldman Sachs arranged swaps allowing Greece to borrow millions of euros without adding to its official public debt in order for it to mask its growing debts and meet the conditions to join the eurozone. The human cost of doing so has been immense. But there will be a higher price still to pay for accelerating Turkey’s accession to the expansionist EU in this dishonest way.

‘The consequences of abandoning freedom, democracy and the trust of the people we serve are grave. It is a price we cannot afford to pay.’

• The European Parliament’s Civil Liberties Committee has called for an investigation into reports that Turkish border guards have been shooting and killing Syrians trying to flee their country.

• The humanitarian organisation Medecins Sans Frontieres has stopped taken money from the EU because of its response to the refugee crisis.

• Leading IN campaigner Jeremy Corbyn has slammed the EU’s deal with Turkey.

The European Parliament’s Civil Liberties Committee has called for an investigation into reports that Turkish border guards have been shooting and killing Syrians trying to flee their country.

MEPs have today called for an investigation into reports that Turkish border guards have been shooting and killing Syrians trying to flee their country: ‘The European Union should check the veracity of reports that Turkish border guards are shooting and killing Syrians who are trying to flee their country, said the Civil Liberties Committee on Tuesday. MEPs also asked the European Commission to assess whether the EU-Turkey deal to manage migration and refugee flows can continue to apply in these circumstances’.

MEPs suggested the EU-Turkey deal might fall apart: ‘Most MEPs described the reports coming from the Syria-Turkey border as “extremely worrying” and agreed that if they proved true, then there should be “consequences”… they underlined that the refugee relocation scheme is not working and that the resettlement programme is progressing very slowly’.

The humanitarian organisation Medecins Sans Frontieres has stopped taken money from the EU because of its response to the refugee crisis.

The humanitarian organisation Medecins Sans Frontieres last week decried the ‘chronic deficiencies of EU policy’ and announced it will no longer take any money from a member of the EU, including Britain, in protest at the way that Europe has responded to the refugee crisis with this special deal with Turkey.  They have called it a shameful European response.

Human Rights Watch has said: ‘Turkish border guards are shooting and beating Syrian asylum seekers trying to reach Turkey, resulting in deaths and serious injuries… During March and April 2016, Turkish border guards used violence against Syrian asylum seekers and smugglers, killing five people, including a child, and seriously injuring 14 others’.

Leading IN campaigner Jeremy Corbyn has slammed the EU’s deal with Turkey.

Last night, Jeremy Corbyn, leading IN campaigner, and Leader of the Labour Party, said: ‘I challenged the Turkey deal when it came up and I said to the Prime Minister at the time that I thought the whole thing was questionably legal and indeed I think the treatment of the refugees is appalling.’

Mr Corbyn said that: ‘The co-ordinated response has actually turned Greece into a transit camp for refugees – many of whom have been returned to Turkey… I don’t blame the Greek government for this, I blame the consortium of European leaders.’