We put forward our analysis of what we think will happen between now and six months time, with a brief geopolitical outlook.
Ongoing Ukraine War Hybrid Conflict
Britain’s MI6 chief warns Putin is deliberately dragging out peace talks and pursuing hybrid war tactics, cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage to undermine NATO without full-scale escalation.
Next 6 months:
Western aid negotiations harden. Ukraine will push for continued or expanded military aid; failure could strain Europe–US unity.
Hybrid incidents may rise. Airspace intrusions and drone provocations could increase along NATO’s eastern flank, forcing clearer defensive responses. The Russians are probing weaknesses within the EU and UK. Underwater data cables are a weakness the Russians will most probably exploit at some point.
Diplomatic stalemate persists. Expect periodic peace-talk attempts, but with minimal breakthroughs by mid-2026, unless a major diplomatic shift occurs.
The Ukraine conflict will remain a primary driver of Western policy, defence budgets, and alliance cohesion. Trump is not an effective negotiator in the geopolitical forum, and his rhetoric and technique inflames tensions without solving any differences between adversaries.
Unfortunately, Trump is probably not aware that branding does not work in geopolitics. For Trump, he thinks if he says something with enough vigour and confidence, the complexity will disappear. The contrary is true, and in geopolitical terms, the conflict is not bilateral. Ukraine is not just a property dispute between CEOs that can be settled with a single phone call, it involves many variables including Ukraine’s sovereignty and survival, Russia’s strategic aims, NATO’s credibility and EU security.
Trump may by some miracle “end the war” quickly, but this would involve killing Ukraine’s sovereignty and weakening its position considerably, as well as normalising territorial conquest thus undermining any NATO deterrence which in the long-term would increase instability and export it globally. This is one way Trump’s stance on the Ukraine war could foment World War III.
Furthermore, Putin has zero incentive to concede and halt the war, especially as the Russian military is still making sporadic gains purely on the sheer number of cannon fodder sent into the Ukrainian meat grinder. Trump’s appeasing terms biased in Russia’s favour are politically and existentially unacceptable to Kyiv and Europe. Russia has already acclimatised its economy to sanctions and for Putin, backing down would be a sign of major weakness which would invariably be the end of his tenure and possibly life.
At best, Trump could possibly gain a slight ceasefire, but this alone will not solve any ongoing war in the region.
New World Disorder – Declining Global Cooperation
Recent reports highlight a decline in traditional global order structures and increasing conflict zones characterised by humanitarian crises, weakened norms, and institutional friction.
Next 6 months:
UN Security Council vetoes and geopolitical stalemates will likely continue to impede unified action on crises.
Acute crises like Sudan and Gaza will deepen without rapid international escalation of aid or peacekeeping.
Food insecurity, displacement, and funding shortfalls could become more political flashpoints.
The idea of a cooperative “rules-based” system will be tested further, with regional powers and blocs asserting more influence.
Western Domestic Politics & Social Fracture
Across Western democracies, political discourse remains highly polarised, which has been documented in academic research on elite toxicity in Western political communication.
Next 6 months:
Domestic politics (UK, EU states, US midterm fallout) will fuel policy direction on climate, defence, immigration, and welfare debates.
With economic concerns still prominent, protest movements and political fragmentation could rise.
Internal division will shape how Western states project power abroad and manage social cohesion at home.
Economic Policies & Monetary Trends
Recent moves by the Bank of England cutting rates, with more cuts expected, reflect Western economies are still battling sluggish growth and inflation deceleration.
Next 6 months:
Monetary easing continues cautiously. Policy divergence may persist between the UK/Eurozone (more cuts) and the US (slower easing).
Growth will stay tepid. Continued weak business confidence and cost pressures may limit recovery. The UK is the highest risk of entering a prolonged recession due to extreme high punitive taxation, enormous profligate spending on welfare and irresponsible economic policies that have stifled growth to almost a standstill. These are direct causes meted out by the current government in the UK.
This could shape fiscal space for defence and social spending in the West.
Technology & Societal Shifts
Tech governance, especially around AI, is emerging as a geopolitical theme, with reports suggesting nations will push regulation to balance innovation with control.
Next 6 months:
AI governance frameworks will advance. Expect legislative movement in the EU and dialogue in Western legislatures on standards, potentially influencing tech diplomacy.
Tech competition intensifies. US and China dynamics in tech (AI, semiconductors) will continue to influence alliance tech policies and national strategies.
This is not a traditional military flashpoint, but tech competition will influence security and economic strategies.
Middle East & Regional Tensions
Existing tensions in the Middle East (post 2025 Israel–Iran dynamics) remain volatile and could flare with limited or broader effects.
Next 6 months:
Regional flashpoints remain unpredictable, and political incentives could push episodic confrontations that affect energy markets.
Western leadership is less decisive in a fragmented global order.
Hybrid and irregular conflict escalation. Russia and other actors operate below full-scale war thresholds.
Domestic political strain shapes foreign policy. Internal divisions constrain Western flexibility and consensus.
Wildcards
- Ukraine conflict escalates beyond hybrid warfare
- Major NATO policy shift or new collective defence agreements
- Energy market shocks from the Middle East or Russia-related supply tensions
- Tech governance divides the West
- Unexpected economic recession pressures Western budgets
Next 6 months:
Expect continuity and stagnation rather than breakthrough diplomacy. Wars and crises won’t end suddenly; Western strategy will be cautious and adaptive.
Internal politics will increasingly shape foreign policy. Parties in power and public mood around social issues (economy, identity) will influence international posture.
Tech and economic policy will be as strategically important as hard power. AI governance, trade alliances, and economic resilience will be key levers.
Geopolitical risk is multipolar, not unipolar. Power projection depends less on Western unilateralism and more on coordination with partners if that cooperation holds.
