Published in Geneva on 14 January 2026, the Global Risks Report identifies geo-economic confrontation as the most significant global risk for the year ahead, reflecting a sharp rise in economic rivalry and the growing use of trade, sanctions and industrial policy as instruments of state power.
Read the full report here.
The overall outlook from experts and leaders is markedly pessimistic. Half of respondents expect the global environment over the next two years to be turbulent or stormy, an increase of 14 percentage points on last year. A further 40 per cent anticipate at least an unsettled outlook, while only 9 per cent foresee stability and just 1 per cent expect calm.
Looking further ahead, expectations darken further, with 57 per cent predicting a turbulent or stormy world over the next decade and only 1 per cent believing conditions will be calm.
Børge Brende, President and Chief Executive of the World Economic Forum, said a new competitive order is emerging as major powers seek to secure their spheres of influence.
He argued that although cooperation now looks very different from the past, dialogue and collaboration remain essential, with the Annual Meeting in Davos providing a critical space to assess risks and build bridges between competing interests.
Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the Forum, described the report as an early warning system, highlighting how intensifying competition is amplifying risks ranging from geo-economic confrontation to unchecked technological change and rising debt, while stressing that none of these outcomes are inevitable.
The report assesses risks across three horizons: the immediate year of 2026, the following two years, and the next decade.
In the near term, armed conflict, the weaponisation of economic tools and deepening societal fragmentation are increasingly converging. These immediate threats are compounded by longer-term challenges linked to rapid technological acceleration and environmental degradation, creating cascading effects across systems.
Geo-economic warfare
Geo-economic confrontation sits at the top of the near-term risk rankings, with 18 per cent of respondents identifying it as the most likely trigger of a global crisis in 2026. It is also ranked first for severity over the next two years, climbing eight places compared with last year.
Armed conflict
State-based armed conflict ranks second for 2026, though it falls to fifth place in the two-year outlook. The report notes that sustained rivalries and protracted conflicts are undermining supply chains, economic stability and the capacity for international cooperation.
Over the next decade, 68 per cent of respondents expect the world to move towards a multipolar or fragmented order, up four points on last year.
The economy and markets
Economic risks show the sharpest overall rise in the short-term outlook. Both economic downturn and inflation have jumped eight places year-on-year, reaching 11th and 21st respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble bursting has risen seven places to 18th. Combined with mounting debt and geo-economic tensions, these pressures raise the prospect of renewed financial volatility.
Technology
Technology and societal risks also feature prominently. Misinformation and disinformation rank second in the two-year outlook, with cyber insecurity in sixth place.
AI
Concerns around artificial intelligence show the most dramatic shift over time, with adverse outcomes linked to AI rising from 30th place in the two-year horizon to fifth over the next decade, reflecting anxieties about impacts on jobs, social cohesion and security.
Society
Societal polarisation ranks fourth in 2026 and is expected to climb to third by 2028, while inequality sits seventh in both the two- and ten-year outlooks. Inequality is again identified as the most interconnected risk, reinforcing others as social mobility weakens, alongside economic downturn as the second most interconnected concern.
Environment
Environmental risks, while still severe, have slipped down the rankings in the short term as immediate crises take precedence. Extreme weather has fallen from second to fourth place in the two-year outlook, pollution from sixth to ninth, and both biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems have dropped several positions.
All environmental risks have seen a decline in severity scores over the short term, indicating an absolute shift in perceived urgency.
However, over the ten-year horizon they remain the most serious threats, with extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems occupying the top three positions. Three quarters of respondents expect the environmental outlook to be turbulent or stormy, making it the most negative assessment across all risk categories.
Together, the findings underline a world facing heightened competition, weakened cooperation and overlapping crises, with the report urging leaders to recognise the scale of the dangers while acting collectively to shape a more stable path forward.
The findings align with the Daily Squib’s prior analysis. All of these pessimistic variables, and symptoms, are the result of one thing — overpopulation.
