A majority of surveyed economists in a report published by the World Economic Forum believe that current U.S. economic policy is likely to have a lasting impact on the global economy. In fact, 87% of them expect it will delay strategic business decisions and increase the risk of a recession. This reflects widespread concern about how U.S. fiscal and monetary choices are influencing corporate planning and economic stability worldwide.
The outlook for global growth remains uneven. Economists report weak prospects in North America, while the Asia-Pacific region continues to show signs of resilience.
In Europe, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, suggesting that while challenges remain, there is potential for moderate recovery and stability in the near term.
At the same time, concerns over public debt are rising sharply. With defence spending on the rise, 86% of chief economists anticipate that governments will resort to increased borrowing to meet their fiscal demands. This raises long-term sustainability questions and amplifies worries about sovereign debt levels and interest burdens.
Generative AI could contribute $4.4 trillion to the global economy annually
Artificial intelligence is widely seen as a key driver of future economic growth. However, this optimism is tempered by concerns over its labour market impact. While AI is expected to boost productivity and innovation, 47% of the surveyed economists anticipate a net loss of jobs, highlighting the disruptive potential of automation and the urgent need for workforce adaptation.
The latest Chief Economists Outlook reveals that a strong majority (79%) of surveyed economists view the current geoeconomic developments as signs of a significant structural shift for the global economy rather than a temporary disruption.
“Policymakers and business leaders must respond to heightened uncertainty and trade tensions with greater coordination, strategic agility and investment in the growth potential of transformative technologies like artificial intelligence,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.
“These steps are essential for navigating today’s economic headwinds and securing long-term resilience and growth.”
Geopolitical and policy uncertainty clouds outlook
Global uncertainty is seen as exceptionally high by 82% of the chief economists. While a narrow majority (56%) expect conditions to improve over the next year, concerns persist. Nearly all the chief economists (97%) place trade policy among the areas of highest uncertainty, followed by monetary policy (49%) and the fundamentals of fiscal policy (35%).
This uncertainty is expected to weigh on key economic indicators, including trade volumes (70%), GDP growth (68%) and foreign direct investment (62%).
Most chief economists (87%) anticipate that businesses will respond to uncertainty by delaying strategic decisions, increasing recession risks. Debt sustainability is also a rising concern, cited by 74% of respondents for both advanced and developing economies.
An overwhelming majority (86%) expect governments to meet rising defence spending needs through increased borrowing, potentially crowding out investment in public services and infrastructure.
Growth expectations diverge sharply by region
In early April, at the peak of uncertainty, most chief economists (77%) were anticipating weak or very weak growth through 2025 in the US, alongside high inflation (79%) and a weakening dollar (76%).
By contrast, they were cautiously optimistic about Europe’s prospects for the first time in years, mainly because of expectations of fiscal expansion, notably in Germany.
The outlook for China remains muted, and the chief economists were divided over whether it will reach its target of 5% GDP growth this year.
Optimism remains highest for South Asia, where 33% expect strong or very strong growth this year.
AI as a growth catalyst but potential economic risk
Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to drive the next wave of economic transformation, unlocking significant growth potential but also introducing serious risks. Nearly half (46%) of chief economists expect AI to deliver a modest global real GDP boost of 0-5 percentage points over the next decade, with a further 35% projecting gains of 5-10 points. Key growth drivers include task automation (68%), accelerated innovation (62%) and worker augmentation (49%). Despite its potential, concerns persist: 47% expect net job losses over the next decade, compared to just 19% who expect gains.
Above all, respondents highlighted the misuse of AI for disinformation and societal destabilization as the top risk to the economy (53%). Other key risks include rising concentration of market power (47%) and disruption of existing business models (44%).
To fully harness AI’s potential, the chief economists emphasized the need for bold action from both governments and businesses. For governments, top priorities include investing in AI infrastructure (89%), promoting adoption across key industries (86%), facilitating AI talent mobility (80%), and investing in upskilling and redeployment (75%). For businesses, the focus is on adapting core processes to integrate AI (95%), reskilling employees (91%) and training leadership to steer AI-driven transformation (83%).
About the Chief Economists’ Outlook
The report builds on extensive consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors, organised by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. This latest survey was conducted in early April 2025. The report supports the Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, aiming to foster dialogue and actionable pathways towards sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
Europe is so fxxed I’m so happy to live in the best nation in the world the USA.
There is no reason to do anything anymore because of the global situation is in dire straits.
It is a sad fact that global growth is suffering because of that moron in the White House.
Donald Trump is a danger to the entire world and it’s no wonder they tried many times to off him.
world is going into deep recession starting with China then USA then EU.
Trump decides everything yall dont got no say in the matter hee heee
The Air India crash is really horribe
I sold all my stocks and shares because Trump has caused a nightmare volatile situation in the markets. What he is doing is criminal and the sad thing is Congress cannot do a thing to stop him.
C’mon Democrats fing do something dammit
The last few days I lost a lot of money on the markets. Every time Trump opens his fat mouth the dollar or Nasdaq sinks.
Shame on Trump he makes me turn off the TV if I hear his voice.
He gives me the chills.
Wassup guys, thanks to the WEF for this report it’s a real warning for me and I’m very careful now in the shares.
I never knew the Daily Squib was part of the World Economic Forum. I suppose if you can’t beat em join em eh?
Still I think it’s pretty cool Illuminati sh+t!
In Poland we see many changes for worst. The conomy and inflation real bad.
AI is gonna take our jobs u know what i don’t care anymore.
How does the WEF forecast the future so effectively. I know they have a bad rep with many but I kind of appreciate them and their knowledge.
It’s all coming true there is no doubt that we are all in for a rollercoaster of a ride.
What i don’t understand is that what do hackers benefit from hacking ok if they steal money i get that but ruining people lives and computers for the sake of it I just do not understand?
No one can replicate China’s manufacturing. First thing the West needs to do is bring back slavery if they want to be like China.
These conomists are all blowing hot air outta their asses
There is definately a lot to learn about this problem what can we do to stop Trump? He is insane.
These economists are not considering the Ukraine war.
Ahaa, but what about the mass immigration? That is costing the EU billions.
This is some great works from these economists but let me ask you a question. When was the last time an economist was right in their predictions? Exactly——–Zero times Null point!!!!!
How much do these economist get paid??? I want to be an economist or an “econo-missed”
As long as Emperor Trump is in charge we are all gonna have a rollercoaster 4 years and recession. Thank you Trump u fat POS!
I am truly thankful to the owner of this web site who has shared this fantastic piece of writing at at this place.
The jobs going to AI really worries me. Soon many of us will be gone.
If AI takes our jobs how do we feed our families? This is a serious concern and our governments need to address this problem. I propose some kind of universal income but many of our governments are already bakrupt. How can they pay especially with huge levels of immigration from 3rd world?
If I was to ask one question to the economists I would ask them what are you going to do about overpopulation? Africa and Asia are polluting the earth and creating overpopulation while Europe is declining in population. We need to preserve European stock and not import from the third world.
Trump has even riled the WEF. Wow that’s something of an achievement.
In other words the global economy is fxxked
I didn’t to waste my time on this terrible nonsense article to know that
I want my four minutes of time back please