Public Services Buckling Under Pressure From Uncontrollable Migration

overcrowding SCHOOLS

LONDON – England – Priti Patel MP comments on the scale of mass unfettered uncontrollable EU migration is having a devastating effect on our public services.

 

 

This week the IN campaign admitted that there can be no upper limit to migration if we stay in the EU.

 

New research released shows the devastating impact of uncontrolled migration on our schools.

 

Commenting, Priti Patel MP said:

 

‘The EU is undemocratic and interferes too much in our daily lives. We have seen that with the scale of migration, and the impact this has had on local communities – and key public services such as the NHS, housing and schools.  With more countries waiting to join the EU, including Albania, Serbia, and Turkey – and with British taxpayers paying almost £2 billion to help them join – this problem can only get worse.

‘This research proves that class sizes are already overstretched, with an 8% increase over the last year in the number of pupils in classes over 30. These demands will only increase if the UK remains in the EU with no control over its borders.

‘Thursday offers a once in a lifetime opportunity to say that the situation is unsustainable – and to recognise that it is hurting British families. On Thursday, we have the chance to take back control and Vote Leave.’

 

SCHOOL LESSONS IN CORRIDOR

 

Research shows if Britain remains in the EU, these problems will get worse:

 

  • 100,800 infants are now educated in classes over the legal limit of 30 pupils per class – an increase of 8% on the previous year.

  • Currently one in five primary school children has a first language other than English – in state funded primary schools it is 19.4%, in primary academies it is 19.3%.

  • 11.6% of children currently fail to get into their first choice primary school.

  • If the EU remains at its current size, we can expect an additional 261,000 school age European citizens to be in the UK school system by 2030. This could increase to 571,000 if the ‘A5’ accession countries (Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey) join in the near future, as currently planned.

  • The increase in school age European citizens is likely to cost between £12.3 billion and £21.7 billion.

  • Added to this, there are also capital costs needed to accommodate these extra children, estimated to range between £3.4 billion and £7.3 billion.

  • Added together, the total additional cost to the UK schools budget of this increase in the school age population due to EU migration can therefore be expected to range between £15.6 billion (assuming the A5 countries don’t join) and £28.9 billion (assuming they do join). The additional annual cost by 2030 will be between £1 billion to £1.9 billion per year.

 

The scale of the problem

 

Britain’s schools are under pressure from uncontrolled EU immigration. David Cameron has admitted, ‘in some areas, the number of migrants we’re seeing is far higher than our local authorities, our schools and our hospitals can cope with. They’re much higher than anything the EU has known before in its history’. This has caused a number of problems for many schools: something that the Prime Minister has also admitted: ‘There are primary schools where dozens of languages are spoken, with only a small minority speaking English as their first language’.

 

These claims are supported by official statistics from the Government:

100,800 infants are now educated in classes over the legal limit of 30 pupils per class – an increase of 8% on the previous year.

Currently one in five primary school children has a first language other than English – in state funded primary schools it is 19.4%, in primary academies it is 19.3%.

11.6% of children currently fail to get into their first choice primary school.

16% don’t get into their first choice secondary school.

 

New research shows that the pressures identified by the Prime Minister are set to get far more severe over the next fifteen years.

 

School-age migration from the EU since the A8 accession

 

The Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority has recently confirmed the high numbers of children migrating to the UK from other EU member states. From 2000-2014, 152,000 EU migrants of school age came to the UK.

 

EEA school-age migration, 2000-2014

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Average

10,000

4,000

2,000

10,000

3,000

5,800

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Average

3,000

6,000

8,000

14,000

10,000

8,200

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Average

13,000

13,000

16,000

14,000

25,000

16,200

Total, 2000-2014

152,000

 

Source: UK Statistics Authority, 3 May 2016.

 

These numbers are on a steep upward trajectory. From 2000-2004, the average number of school-age EEA migrants per year was 5,800. This rose to 8,200 in 2005-2009. It then nearly doubled to 16,200 in the period 2010-2014. This trend has been especially clear since the accession of the eastern European member states in 2004. It also increased at an unprecedented rate in the last year of recorded data.

 

 

Source: UK Statistics Authority, 3 May 2016.

 

Over the same period, around 1 million net migrants came to the UK from the EU, 515,000 of whom were from the EU8 accession states.

 

EU total and school-age net migration compared

Year

EU total

EU8 total

EU school

EU8 school

2000

6,000

10,000

2001

7,000

4,000

2002

7,000

2,000

2003

15,000

10,000

2004

87,000

49,000

3,000

2005

96,000

61,000

3,000

2006

104,000

71,000

6,000

2007

127,000

87,000

8,000

2008

63,000

20,000

14,000

2009

58,000

16,000

10,000

2010

77,000

49,000

13,000

2011

82,000

40,000

13,000

2012

82,000

30,000

16,000

2013

123,000

44,000

14,000

2014

174,000

48,000

25,000

Total

1,108,000

515,000

151,000

52,000

 

Source: ONS, 2015; ONS, May 2016; UKSA, 3 May 2016.

 

The school-age migrants as a percentage of the total was therefore as follows:

 

  • All EU states: 13.6%.

  • EU8 accession states: 10.1%.

 

The number of children in the UK of school age with one or more parent of EU/EEA nationality more than doubled between 2007 and 2015:

 

Total school-age population with one or both parents of EEA nationality

2007

309,000

2008

326,000

2009

361,000

2010

432,000

2011

475,000

2012

419,000

2013

520,000

2014

565,000

2015

699,000

 

Source: UK Statistics Authority, 29 April 2016.

 

Future school-age migration

 

A conservative estimate of future school-age migration from the EU is that one in ten migrants will be of school age. This allows for a forecast of future school-age migration from the EU to be calculated. Vote Leave has already set out forecasts for future inward migration. It is possible to adapt these models to calculate future school-age migration from the EU. This provides:

 

  1. A baseline forecast, in which the candidate countries do not accede to the EU.

  2. A low forecast, under which the accession countries join in 2020 and migrate to the UK at the same rate as the EU-8 countries did.

  3. A medium forecast is that net EU migration mirrors migration from the EU-2 countries.

  4. A high forecast – which builds on the medium forecast, and takes into account the pull factor of the national living wage.

 

We also include a scenario in which transitional controls are imposed for a period of seven years from 2020 until the end of 2027, the duration of transitional controls following the A2 accessions in 2007. This forecast assumes the same migration as in the case of the baseline until 2028, and the increases in net migration that occur under the low forecast thereafter).

 

Future school-age migration from the EU (cumulative)

Year

Baseline

Transitional Controls

Low Forecast

Medium Forecast

High Forecast

2016

18,400

18,400

18,400

18,400

18,400

2017

36,800

36,800

36,800

36,800

38,148

2018

55,200

55,200

55,200

55,200

58,648

2019

73,600

73,600

73,600

73,600

79,900

2020

92,000

92,000

94,061

98,114

110,118

2021

110,400

110,400

116,583

128,743

148,548

2022

128,800

128,800

141,166

165,485

195,192

2023

147,200

147,200

165,748

202,228

241,836

2024

165,600

165,600

190,331

238,970

288,480

2025

184,000

184,000

214,914

275,713

335,124

2026

202,400

202,400

239,497

312,456

381,767

2027

220,800

220,800

264,080

349,198

428,411

2028

239,200

241,261

288,662

385,941

475,055

2029

239,200

245,383

294,845

404,283

503,299

2030

239,200

251,566

301,028

422,626

530,195

 

Children born to EU parents in the UK

 

In 2014, 76,650 children were born in the UK to a parent or parents from the EU.

 

Children born to EU parents in the UK

Number

% total births

Father from EU

50,512

7.3

Mother from EU

64,067

9.2

Both parents from EU

37,929

5.5

One or both parents from EU

76,650

11.0

 

Source: ONS, August 2015.

 

These numbers are rising, as the long-term trend for those born in England and Wales to mothers from the EU shows.

 

Children born to EU mothers, England & Wales

Year

Number

% of total births

2008

44,022

6.2

2009

47680

6.8

2010

52,868

7.3

2011

55,194

7.6

2012

59,061

8.1

2013

60,448

8.7

2014

64,067

9.2

 

Source: ONS, August 2015.

 

Children born to future EU migrants

 

The current birth rate in England and Wales is 12.1 births per thousand of the population. Assuming this will be the birth rate for future EU migrants, the table below indicates the number of children expected to be born to net EU migrants coming to the UK between now and 2030. It should be stressed that the totals at the bottom of the table do not include children born to EU migrants who arrived before this year.

 

Births to EU net migrants arriving from 2016

Year

Baseline

Transitional Controls

Low Forecast

Medium Forecast

High Forecast

2016

2,226

2,226

2,226

2,226

2,226

2017

4,453

4,453

4,453

4,453

4,616

2018

6,679

6,679

6,679

6,679

7,096

2019

8,906

8,906

8,906

8,906

9,668

2020

11,132

11,132

11,381

11,872

13,324

2021

13,358

13,358

14,107

15,578

17,974

2022

15,585

15,585

17,081

20,024

23,618

2023

17,811

17,811

20,056

24,470

29,262

2024

20,038

20,038

23,030

28,915

34,906

2025

22,264

22,264

26,005

33,361

40,550

2026

24,490

24,490

28,979

37,807

46,194

2027

26,717

26,717

31,954

42,253

51,838

2028

28,943

29,193

34,928

46,699

57,482

2029

33,396

31,918

37,903

51,145

63,126

2030

33,396

34,892

40,877

55,591

68,769

 

Assuming that the children born to EU migrants will enter the school system five years after their birth, it is possible to combine the figures for the number of school age migrants from the EU and the number of births to EU migrants. Adding these two figures together reveals the total number of new persons of school age due to EU migration for the next fifteen years.

 

Persons added to school population due to EU net migration

Baseline

Transitional Controls

Low Forecast

Medium Forecast

High Forecast

2016

18,400

18,400

18,400

18,400

18,400

2017

36,800

36,800

36,800

36,800

38,148

2018

55,200

55,200

55,200

55,200

58,648

2019

73,600

73,600

73,600

73,600

79,900

2020

92,000

92,000

94,061

98,114

110,118

2021

112,626

112,626

118,809

130,969

150,775

2022

133,253

133,253

145,618

169,938

199,808

2023

153,879

153,879

172,428

208,907

248,932

2024

174,506

174,506

199,237

247,876

298,148

2025

195,132

195,132

226,295

287,585

348,448

2026

215,758

215,758

253,603

328,034

399,742

2027

236,385

236,385

281,161

369,222

452,029

2028

257,011

259,072

308,718

410,410

504,317

2029

259,238

265,420

317,875

433,199

538,205

2030

261,464

273,830

327,033

455,987

570,745

Total

2,275,252

2,295,861

2,628,838

3,324,241

4,016,362

Average

151,683

153,057

175,256

221,616

267,757

 

School funding

 

Schools in England have three main streams of current revenue: the Dedicated Schools Grant (Schools and High Needs Blocks), the Pupil Premium and the Education Services Grant (ESG). If these are added together and then divided by the number of schools pupils, it is possible to calculate education spending per pupil.

 

Education Funding

Schools Block (2016-17) (£m)

High Needs Block (2016-17) (£m)

Pupil Premium (2015-16) (£m)

ESG (2016-17) (£m)

Total Funding (£m)

No. pupils

Total funding per pupil (£)

32,649

5,229.87

2,411

507

40,867

7,041,321

5,803.89

 

Source: Education Funding Agency, 2016; Education Funding Agency, 2015; Education Funding Agency, 27 April 2016

 

As the 2016 cohort passes through the school system, each pupil will cost on average £5,803.89 per year. By assuming that per pupil funding remains at today’s levels, it is possible to calculate the cost of future school-age migration from the EU to the UK as set out above. In each cohort, we must allow for a certain proportion who will not enter state education: a generous assumption is that this is 7% (the same as the general proportion of children who attend independent schools in England).

 

Capital costs
The Department for Education provides £13,780 to cover the capital cost of each school place. This does not include the land values of new school premises.
The table below shows the capital costs of children born to EU migrants arriving from 2016. Those born 2016-19 will also enter secondary education, so will require both an additional primary and secondary school place. Likewise, children who enter the UK between 2016 and 2024 will also enter secondary education, so their capital costs are also doubled.Total current and capital spending
Combining the figures above gives an estimate of the total costs, both current and capital.

Combined current and capital costs

 

Baseline (£bn)

Transitional Controls (£bn)

Low (£bn)

Medium(£bn)

High (£bn)

Total current (£bn)

12.28

12.39

14.19

17.94

21.68

Total capital (£bn)

3.35

3.51

4.19

5.84

7.31

Total current and capital (£bn)

15.63

15.90

18.38

23.79

28.99

Total per year (£bn)

1.04

1.06

1.23

1.59

1.93

The total cost to the schools budget of EU migration from 2016 to 2030 is therefore expected to range between £15.6 billion and £28.9 billion. This is an annual cost of between £1 billion to £1.9 billion per year. It is worth noting finally that these are conservative estimates since they do not include: the cost of purchasing land for new schools; early-years education; pre-2016 EU migration, or migration of those under five years of age. The actual cost of a remain vote to our schools budget is likely to be far higher.